Beginning A Model for Predicting the Length of Government Shutdowns

Copyright 2013 J. Lee Lehman

In most of the discussions of the current government shutdown, if prior shutdowns have been mentioned at all, the it was the one presided over by then-Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich during the Clinton Administration in 1996. Actually, there have been a whole series of them. I wanted to create a table to show something about their astrology.

The reason for the particular columns is simple: there's a lot of precedence in astrology for using a predominance of cardinal meaning fast, a predominance of mutable meaning average, and a predominance of fixed being slow. Unfortunately, this table suggests that we will have to go further with our analysis.

Table One. US government shutdowns. All occur at midnight. Source: http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/a-brief-history-of-federal-government-shutdowns/. Note: source gave dates as midnight of the next day, while these have been converted to the notation as it would be put in an astrology computer program. For example, the source would give 30 September for a shutdown commencing at the midnight beginning 1 October, as in the current case

Date	Length in Days	Moon sign	Asc sign	Ruler Asc sign	Fortuna	PH Ruler sign
1 Oct 1976	10	Cap	Can	Cap	Ari	Sco
1 Oct 1977	12	Tau	Can	Tau	Sco	Leo
1 Nov 1977	8	Can	Leo	Sco	Sag	Sco
1 Dec 1977	8	Leo	Vir	Sag	Cap	Leo
1 Oct 1978	18	Vir	Can	Vir	Can	Lib
1 Oct 1979	11	Aqu	Can	Aqu	Pis	Aqu
21 Nov 1981	2	Vir	Vir	Sco	Sco	Lib
1 Oct 1982	1	Pis	Can	Pis	Aqu	Vir
18 Dec 1982	3	Cap	Vir	Cap	Leo	Sco
11 Nov 1983	3	Aqu	Leo	Sco	Gem	Sco
1 Oct 1984	2	Sag	Can	Sag	Ari	Sag
4 Oct 1984	1	Aqu	Can	Aqu	Pis	Cap
17 Oct 1986	1	Ari	Can	Aqu	Aqu	Sco
19 Dec 1987	1	Sag	Vir	Sag	Lib	Sag
6 Oct 1990	3	Tau	Can	Tau	Sag	Cap
14 Nov 1995	5	Sag	Vir	Sag	Leo	Sag
6 Dec 1996	21	Lib	Vir	Cap	Sco	Cap
1 Oct 2013	?	Leo	Can	Leo	Leo	Leo

There are several points to consider in examining these results in thinking about what factors could in fact produce a predictable result. First, we need to consider that, much like studying US electional cycles, the calendar period is constrained. Congress has rules whereby the annual budget is supposed to be passed by July 1st. Unfortunately, that often doesn't happen, resulting in continuing measures. Historically, the inability to reach agreement was met with more embarrassment than enthusiasm, and this event in 2013 seems to be only the second time in which there seemed to actually be relish in creating this crisis.

Because of this structure, it is typically only in the Autumn when such a shutdown can occur, with October 1st the earliest date. The time midnight is automatic. It should also be mentioned that shutdowns since 1980 have produced a more severe result than previously, so it's possible that the data from before 1980 may not work in the same fashion, where the length of the shutdown had a less severe impact on the government.

Over the next week or so, I hope to be able to present other facets of how we can create an astrology that productively examines these events.